Markov model to forecast the change in prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths during a control programme: A case study in Vietnam

Abstract

Background: A mathematical model based on the Markov methodology to predict the change in prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections during public health control activities is not available, but would be an extremely efficient planning tool. Method: We used the parasitological data collected during a deworming and iron supplementation programme for women of child-bearing age conducted in Vietnam between 2006 and 2011 to develop a Markov transition probability model. The transition probabilities were calculated from the observed changes in prevalence in the different classes of intensity for each STH species during the first year of intervention. The model was then developed and..